AI Theory Map
A living map of how serious thinkers bet on the future of AI.
Which path will AI take?
Follow the assumptions behind four very different readings of the future—and see why their conclusions diverge.
Explore an exampleOpen to explore. No account needed.
Five forks · seven futures
Reading 1 of 4
The Coming Wave
Mustafa Suleyman and Michael Bhaskar · 2023
M1 ScalingM2 AgencyM3 TakeoffM4 ControlM5 Coordination
The map’s assumptions connect this reading to seven possible futures.
Model outcomes · estimatesThe Coming Wave · 100% total
- Normal Technology
- 15%
- Powerful Augmentation
- 21%
- Managed Abundance
- 10%
- Loss of Control
- 6%
- Gradual Disempowerment
- 17%
- Containment / Misuse
- 23%
- Concentration / Singleton
- 8%
Model estimates from the map’s interpretation of each book. These are not probabilities stated by the authors or calibrated forecasts.